Friday

15


July , 2016
IMPACT OF TERRORIST ATTACK ON TURKISH ECONOMY
00:00 am

Anustup Roy Barman


Anustup Roy Barman

 

Turkey, the land of Mustafa Kamal Ataturk, the “father of Turkish secularism”, is facing a great challenge from Islamist terrorists groups. Recently, Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport, the 11th busiest airport in the world and the third busiest in Europe, was attacked by three gunmen. Nearly 42 died and more than 100 were injured. The terrorists fired at the people before blowing themselves up. No terrorist organization has yet taken any responsibility for the attack. The Daesh/ the Islamic State (IS) is suspected to have been behind the attack. This attack caps a year of violence that has affected Turkey’s tourism industry. As violence in neighbouring Syria increasingly spills over into Turkey, a country that once promoted itself as a stable base in a restive region, its ambition to be a global economic hubis threatened.

Importance of Turkish economy for India

The Turkish economy has shown remarkable performance with its steady growth over the last eight years. A sound

macroeconomic strategy in combination with prudent fiscal policies and major structural reforms in effect since 2002, has integrated the Turkish economy into the globalized world, while transforming the country into one of the major recipients of FDI in its region. Turkey’s economy is increasingly driven by its industry and service sectors, although its traditional agriculture sector still accounts for about 30% of employment. Turkey is India’s 40th largest trading partner globally and the 40th largest investor in India. The last few years have seen substantial growth in trade relations between the two countries. The balance of trade has been in India’s favourlong since. Bilateral trade has been impacted negatively as a result of the financial/economic crisis of 2009. The trade which was showing signs of healthy growth, contracted by 23.28% in 2009, but for 2010 it has registered a volume of US $ 4.01 billion (+ 74.49 % yoy growth). Both countries are G-20 members with progressive economies. Institutional arrangements in terms of Joint Commission for Economic and Technical Cooperation (JCETC), Joint Business Council (JBC) exist between the two countries. They are signatories to agreements such as avoidance of double taxation (DTA), reciprocal protection and promotion of investments (BIPA), S&T, maritime, agricultural and tourism cooperation. The JSG formed for examining feasibility of a free trade agreement between the two countries is in the final stages of submitting its report to the two governments.

Geo-strategic significance

Turkey is in the middle of the four regions- Balkans, Caucasus, West Asia and Europe. It is located on the Anatolian peninsula having three seas around. In the period of globalization, the continuation of United States’ military actions in these regions and its distance to these regions, establish the strategic importance of Turkey in the world. The West Asian countries consider using Turkey as a significant transit country to the Western world. West Asia is a major energy producer and if Turkey becomes a major energy transit corridor into the EU, the latter could increase diversification of its energy suppliers and transit countries to a rather significant extent. Turkey is also important to the producer site as for them Turkey is the safest and easiest way to an export route. Terrorist attacks and extreme violence will affect all this.

New anti-terrorist policy

Turkey has recently changed its anti-terrorist policy and has directed it overtly against the IS and the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK). This change in policy, some experts claim, is the reason behind these attacks. The main legal provisions concerning terrorism in Turkey are set out in the Counter-Terrorism Law passed in1991 and the Turkish Criminal Code.

The Law on the Prevention of Financing of Terrorism (No.6415) came into effect on February 16, 2013. It provides for the implementation of principles and procedures of the United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1267 (1999), 1988 (2011) and 1989 (2011), through the decision of the Council of Ministers of Turkey.

Turkey’s new strategy for solving the Kurdish problem has put greater responsibility on civilian political means, which is endorsed by these amendments to the terrorism law. It, however, does not leave any scope for dialogue with the outlawed PKK leaders of northern Iraq and Europe, or its imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan.

Sources from the Turkish security forces informed the media that they will pressurize the PKK to lie down weapons and ease the way for a democratic solution of the Kurdish question. This change in policy came about following PKK’s plans to turn the region of Nevruz in Turkey into a stage for a Kurdish uprising. A Turkish official said, “They tried this in 2010 and 2011, but they were not successful. We will not allow them to succeed.”

According to Dr. Yeşiltaş, Director of Security Studies at SETA Foundation in Ankara, Turkey, Turkey is a part of the war against the DAESH. He stated Turkey’s anti-DAESH policy has made it a target and cautioned that the country could expect more attacks on its territory.

The PKK was the major opponent of the Turkish government from the mid-1980s. In the past couple of years the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and small Marxist-Leninist groups have masterminded terrorist attacks in Turkey. Foreign fighters engaged in the Syrian civil war also posed problems for Turkish national security in the last few years. Turkey has responded to terrorism not only by adopting more stringent laws, but also by creating a terrorist blacklist, enhancing antiterrorist international cooperation, using an outreach programme to communities to prevent terrorist recruitment, and relying on Turkey’s chief religious affairs body to counter violent extremist messaging.Economic effect of attacks

While asked about the economic effect of this ongoing violence in Turkey, William Jones, member of the Executive Intelligence Review in Leesburg, Virginia, said that the attack will be severely detrimental for the Turkish economy. People are increasingly wary of transiting from Ankara, Turkey. The attacks will hit tourism hard. According to Jones, Turkish President RecepTayyipErdoğan is playing a larger game, where he wants to make the Presidency stronger and create a trend towards Islamization in secular Turkish society. It is dangerous for Turkey as it causing economic damage and creating volatile situation in the region. The region is already at its boiling point with frequent terrorist activities.

In January, an Islamist militant blew himself up near the fabled Blue Mosque, killing 12 people from Germany, which traditionally accounts for the largest number of visitors to Turkey. Economists forecast that tourism revenue will tumble by a quarter this year, costing the country around $8 billion. Overall footfall to Turkey fell by a modest 1.6% last year, according to Turkish government data. “Security concerns have the biggest impact on high-income tourist groups, who are most likely to change their plans to visit,” said Mehmet Besimoglu, an economist at Oyak Investment. German travel group TUI has reported a 40% drop in summer bookings for holidays in Turkey.Attacks on airports

The attack on the Ataturk International Airport is similar to the attack on the Brussels airport, 22 March 2016. Attacks on air-ports give the terrorists the symbolic value they seek and guarantees international media attention. These attacks generate panic which forces business executives and tourists to re-evaluate their plans.

Airports have been targeted by terrorists for long. Airports are preeminent sites of progress, cosmopolitanism, mobility, afflu-ence and freedom. Airports are easy targets, as an attack can create rapid confusion and panic. But besides the September 11, 2001 attacks and a handful of other hijackings, airplanes have not been the focus of airport attacks in the last two decades. It is usually more about inflicting violence on innocent passengers and random airline workers. But with this airport attack, securing the built-up areas of airport and not just its premises have become important.

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