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Dear Readers,

I, the son of Bharat Mata, origin Rajasthan, born and did my schooling in Bihar, graduated with a Law degree from Calcutta University and presently living in Bengal, celebrated the holy Holi Festival at Rishikesh along with children of Bharat Mata and hundreds of foreigners. On March 21 and 22, the holy Holi Festival was celebrated all over the world by the children of Bharat Mata and thousands of foreigners who have been being spiritualised and enlightened by the Swamis and other great saints/preachers. The holy Holi Festival is not a festival of colours but has great significance and message to humanity to imbibe the divine virtues, remaining on the path of righteousness with faith in self and almighty God, while not yielding to brutes even at risk of life. The origin of this festival is from the story of scriptures. The holy Holi Festival was even celebrated by Lord Krishna thousands of years ago. The story is also of Prahlad, whose father Hiranyakashyap believed himself to be the supreme power. He denied the existence of God and treated himself as God. Prahlad was tortured and put on the burning pyre with his father’s sister who had the boon of not getting burnt by fire. Prahlad escaped, while she was burnt to ashes. The boon failed as it was used to cause harm to others. It is the festival to celebrate goodness/virtues and victory of virtuous over brutes.

Indian Economy: The Indian government has been claiming that India is the world’s fastest-growing major economy with an annual rate of 7% or so over the past several years, with a dip below that level last year.  But how realistic is this claim of 7% growth after the method by which GDP is calculated was changed in 2015? The earlier emphasis of the calculation was on final output figures, but the new series marks a shift to value addition. This has thrown up a discrepancy between the old series of GDP data and the new one for their overlap period from the second quarter of fiscal 2011-12 to the third quarter of 2013-14. By the old series with 2004-05 as base year, India’s economy grew by a mere 5.4% per annum on average during this stretch, but the new series (GVA11-12) showed a rate of 6.7%. America based Fitch rating agency has lowered its projection of India’s GDP growth for FY20 from 7% to 6.8% and 7.1% for FY21. Last December, Fitch had already lowered India's FY19 GDP growth forecast to 7.2% from 7.8%. The global economy is projected to grow 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, as per forecasts by International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Due to the muted economy, disposable income growth has fallen from 13-14% to 9.50%. So, domestic saving is also declining. This affects investment. Over half a decade, economic growth has been led by consumption demand, surge in retail credit and higher revenue expenditure by government.

Banks do not have liquidity problem, as the growth in advance/credit is much lower than that of deposits. Deposit growth is 14% while credit growth is 10%. Banks are investing in government securities to the advantage of government. It is predicted that the credit growth would be 14%. Credit growth is more in retail credit. Only when the investment climate improves, the credit growth rate will surge significantly. The tepid IPO market also reflects the present mood. Manufacturing and other sectors are mostly ailing.

The GST, the “One Nation, One Tax” one nation’s concept has been complicated.  There are a number of rates of GST. The GST Council, after its meeting on March 19, decided to give developers a choice in how to levy GST on properties which are already under construction. In the case of regular housing, the developers can either opt for the existing GST rate of 12% with input tax credit (ITC) or the new rate of 5% without ITC that was announced in February. For affordable housing projects, developers can either go for the existing GST rate of 8% with ITC or the new rate of 1% without ITC. The new lower GST rates and the choice for the developers come into effect from April 1, 2019. Any new under-construction project that is launched after 1 April will have to adhere to the new GST rates. However, for existing buyers who have opted for under-construction housing project and made part payments, their hope to save some money on the remainder of the payment because of lower GST rate may come to a naught if the developer opts to adhere to the old rate, which most developers will to ensure that they don’t end up making losses. Thus, relief for the home-buyer is not guaranteed. The GST has lot of flaws.

Investment: Just 21 MW thermal power capacities got added in the first 11 months of FY19 compared to 1,227 MW during the same period in FY18. More than Rs. 3 lakh crore investments in a dozen power plants of private sector are on the verge of becoming NPA as state distribution companies have not been making payments for months for purchase of power. Many states have canceled the legal binding contracts and forcing for new rates which are much lower to meet the interest cost, even the operational costs. This is no fault of the promoters. They are becoming victims of the circumstances and are faltering in servicing their own loans and they are exposed to various severe consequences. The estimated outstanding with states is over Rs. one and half lakh crore. Supply of coal is also not ensured and regular. There is enough coal. But at the cost of Nation, it is being imported.

Institutional lenders led by SBI have taken control of Jet Airlines to keep the airline airborne. Now institutional lenders are preferring to talk borrowers than that of IBC. Government should ensure that the operational creditors are not left in the lurch as majority of them are SMEs and small traders.

Ease of doing business: World Bank reports that starting a business in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and many more states would doubtlessly weight India down in the ranking. There are manifold and diverse rules and regulations in all the states. Rules and regulations are also changed frequently. There is lack of perception, vision and practicality. Telecom, power, metal, realty, infrastructure have larger loss of revenue. Multitude of reforms has not helped in doing business as authorities have not been discharging their duties even righteously. Instead, misuse of power by certain people in authority is dampening the entrepreneurial spirit.

They have developed a negative attitude as CAG and SAG (Central Auditor General and States Auditor General) are having negative approach without positive approach and reality of the past.

There is need for introspection in the Government of wider adaptation of changes. The ease of doing business in any sector is remote. Government should figure out why projects are getting stalled? Why good assets with high potential are becoming stressed? Why promoters are becoming defaulters? Why government agencies, undertaking, states and government are delaying payments for years leading to death of enterprises. Authority should be made responsible. Spiritual environment should be created. One must be driven with the inner force of doing good and working righteously and fearlessly for the welfare of millions of brothers and sisters – all the Bharatwasis.

Stock market: Domestic institutional investors were net sellers in view of ensuing election, Pakistan’s hostilities, profit booking due to ending of financial year as and when prices are up, while FIIs were buyers as global growth is weakening. Goldman Sachs said that India remains the most expensive markets in the world. However, the current domestic macro and market setup looks better on most metrics. State run banks are upgraded. Profit booking is the trend. A long position is being avoided.

Let Bharatwasi save more and more for the sake of investment. Let Bharatwasi make investment for inclusive and sustainable growth.