January , 2023
Auto Industry to see significant growth next year
11:25 am

Pritha Mishra

After defying the global trend of dropping sales this year, India’s car market is predicted to experience a growth in sales across segments in 2023–24, albeit at a considerably slower rate. Credit rating companies and brokerage firms predict that the fundamentals that have underpinned growth over the last couple of years will hold for the upcoming year.

Christmas 2022 was a joyous occasion for the auto industry as it marked for the first time, the involvement of shoppers from every category who participated in the holiday shopping season in large numbers, making it the best in the previous four years. As expected, the PV sector had its greatest year in ten years, outpacing 2020 figures by 2%. Overall retail sales increased by 6% from the pre-Covid holiday season of 2019. According to the FADA President, all the categories were in the black, with 2W, 3W, CV, PV, and tractor categories rising by 2%, 2%, 14%, 18%, and 55%, respectively.

Even when compared to the month of 2019 before Covid, overall retail sales increased by 8% as they closed in the positives for the first time. Except for 3Ws, which experienced a negligible decline of -0.6%, he claimed all other categories, including 2W, PV, tractor, and CV, increased by 6%, 18%, 47%, and 13% respectively. Retail sales increased by 29% to reach 28,88,131 units throughout the course of the 42-day holiday season, up from 22,42,139 units during the same time last year. According to the industrialists, despite a healthy order book of about 7,50,000 passenger cars (PVs) as of November 30, industry insiders are keeping a watch on potential stumbling blocks such as persistently high inflation, price increases due to regulatory changes, and rising borrowing costs. Due to the large base effect and easing of pent-up demand, sales growth is anticipated to decline from high double digits this fiscal year to mid-single digits. 3.83 million PVs will be sold in 2022–2023, up from 3.06 million units in the prior fiscal year, according to brokerage company Nomura.

After experiencing a prolonged downturn in 2018 due to a variety of factors including low rural demand, price increases brought on by regulatory changes, and inflation, the two-wheeler market has just begun to show signs of recovery. However, it is expected that this growth will eventually decelerate. Credit rating firm Crisil predicts that two-wheeler volumes will be driven by a typical monsoon in 2023–2024, together with enhanced model availability and EVs, however at an estimated drop tempo of 11–12%, as opposed to a probable 2–23% on this fiscal. It is projected that industrial vehicles, particularly medium and heavy CVs (items carriers), which are dependent on the state of the economy and the state of industry, will advance more slowly in the upcoming fiscal year. ICRA projects that the segment will grow by 10-12% in 2023–2024, down from 15-20% in the previous year.

It is anticipated that EV sales will skyrocket, though, as more manufacturers introduce new products and the industry continues to be covered by the media. EV penetration for passenger vehicles is anticipated to reach 3% in 2023–2024, which is higher than the 1.6% forecast for the current fiscal year. 

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