Bharat: On August 15th Bharatwasis will celebrate the completion of 75 years of Independence by
paying homage to the millions of brothers and sisters who sacrificed their lives during struggle for
freedom. All should feel inspired to make Bharat one of the strongest, economically well-off and happiest
Nations of the world. Swami Vivekananda had said, “I loved my Motherland dearly before I went to
America and England. After my return every particle of dust of this land is sacred to me”. Bharatwasis
have to work hard with devotion, righteously, selflessly and fearlessly. Bharat has to be “Atmanirbhar”.
Bharat has to achieve it to provide employment and feed her population. When Bharatwasis rise to their
potential and do hard work, no power on Earth can stop its glory. They have to have conviction of power
of goodness, moral aptitude, technical, intellect knowledge and the commitment to harmony and peace.
Economy: The hike in the price of crude oil caused by the supply chain disruptions due to the Ukraine-
Russia war and there to inflation has adversely affected the global economy. There is a fear of global
recession. Its impact is also on the Indian economy. FY23 GDP growth forecasted for India has also been
scaled down by various agencies. Morgan Stanley revises GDP growth to 7.2% in FY23 from 7.6%.
Scaling down expectations India Ratings said India is likely to grow at 7-7.2% instead of the earlier
projection of 7.6%, ICRA revised its projection down from earlier 8%to 7.2%, RBI from 7.8% to 7.2%,
S&P Global Ratings from 7.8% to 7.3%, World Bank from 8% to 7.5 %, Citigroup from 9% to 8.4%,
IMF from 8.2%to 7.4%, ADB from 7.5% to 7.2%, Fitch from 8.5% to 7.8%.US Federal Reserve may
hike interest rate further by 1% point. Economic Affairs Secretary, Ajay Seth said that there was no need
to get worried about the fall in rupee. RBI is well managing. However, overseas capital inflow is low
because of the weakening of rupee. FICCI’s economic outlook survey projected GDP growth estimate of
7% for 2022-23 with minimum and maximum growth estimate of 6.5% and 7.3% respectively. The
Economic Survey projected the real GDP growth during 2022-23 to grow at 8-8.5%. for current financial
year. Government and RBI are closely monitoring global and domestic price movements and their impact
on the economy. Hike in the rate of interest by RBI will increase the cost of production.
RBI Governor said that the Indian economy remains resilient despite formidable global headwinds and
amidst fears of a recession in developed nations. Continuous monitoring is needed on the widening of
trade deficit and the continuous decline in forex reserves.
Leading consultancy Deloitte India reports – India is likely to regain world’s fastest growing economy
status despite rising commodity prices, surging inflation, supply shortage and shifting geopolitical
realities across the world weigh on the growth outlook. The forex reserve has declined to USD 572.71
billion. RBI has been selling US dollars from the forex reserve to defend the Indian rupee. RBI governor
said that this is the purpose for which the reserve was accumulated. The considerable pressure on the
rupee has also been due to record foreign outflows of capital in equity.
RBI has announced measures to boost forex inflow. Measures include (a) exemption from Cash Reserve
Ratio (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) on incremental Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank)
and Non-Resident (External) Rupee Deposits, (b) Changes in foreign currency lending by Authorised
Dealer Category I (AD Cat-I ) Banks
Investment: Wealth and job creators continue risk aversion. They are not investing. A few are
having golden opportunities to buy good assets at rock bottom price in IBC process. However, central
government’s capex has gone up while the proportion of expenditure on subsidy on food, fuel and
fertilizers has come down.
PSU Banks profit has jumped despite haircut of 80 to 90% and low credit growth. Had they been charging
higher rate of interest 15 to 18% plus panel rate of interest and not following rate of interest prescribed by
RBI for MSMEs. As many as 10,067 MSMEs were shut down between 2016 to 2022. About 96% or
9,667 units were shut between 2019 and 2022. They might have defaulted in payments to lenders. Are
Current Account Deficit has been increasing due to the high imports and low exports. The macro
economic fundamentals remain robust to deal with the situation. The country imports nearly 80% of the
crude oil needs. Exports of wheat and wheat (atta) have been banned. Export of sugar was also banned
which has now been opened. This will impact the farmers and the Nation will lose overseas buyers. It
would become difficult to regain the overseas buyers. Rising FPI outflows have also impacted the
forex reserve. Export policy should be consistent irrespective of domestic prices rise. Nation has to
maintain its strong sovereign credit.
A perpetual depreciating currency dampens investment climate. Overseas investors also look for return on
investments. Falling rupee makes the import expensive. To boost the economy government should allow
export of all items even at the cost of rise in domestic price. Bharatwasis have to sacrifice the pleasure of
consumption of some items for boosting the economy and for the welfare of the Nation. Global factors are
responsible for rupee depreciation. The currency of other countries like Pound, Yen, Euro have weakened
more than Indian rupee against the US dollar. This is not solace to the Nation.
Power: India’s renewable energy capacity (excluding large hydro) stood at 114.07 GW till June end this
year while 60.66 GW of projects are under various stages of development. India’s installed wind capacity
touches 40,788 MW mark; solar 57,705 MW. Despite large coal reserves, India is to import 76 MT of
coal at high rate to keep in operation thermal power capacity of 403.75 GW.
Global Economy: World Bank has projected that global GDP growth is expected to slump from 5.7% in
2021 to 2.9% in 2022 significantly lower than 4.1 percent that was anticipated in January.
Start-ups: Government has been launching various policies and is organizing various workshops to
encourage the start-ups. The basic need of start-up entrepreneurs is to have the fund. They can collect
small capital from parents, friends and relatives. Banks are reluctant to give credit (loan). Overseas fund
and venture fund are also now averse to funding Indian start-ups.
They need regular inflow of capital. There is no guarantee that start-up enterprise will not fail due to so
many external factors. If the debt remains in default or is delayed, it will be declared as fraud and they
may have to face criminal action.
Wealth and job creators should shake off their risk aversion and do the business fearlessly and
righteously, generating righteous profit as they know Goddess Mother Lakshmi stay and grow where
there is righteousness in doing business/enterprises. Regulators/authorities need to understand that
enterprises will be affected by external factors in delay and temporary default in payments which does not
mean that the assets are non-performing and there is element of fraud as being termed.
Based on Holy Vedas: Meet wealth creators, small to big, apply mind and insight for analytical solutions.
Be formidable and firm with subconscious decisions. Be not engaged in building monuments, statues,
new fabulous workplace and homes. Build homes for homeless and rural inhabitants instead of organising
big rally spending crores.
Dr. H.P. Kanoria
Editor in chief
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