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I have observed an overreaction and an unbalanced approach in tackling Covid in India. In the last three months, there have been approximately 20,000 Covid deaths, i.e., the death rate is around 200 per day.  But there are other major causes of death, which will increase further. 

Given the current situation and the way healthcare ecosystems across the globe are fighting the pandemic, we need to invest more in healthcare technology and in engaging experienced and skilled doctors, nurses and para medical staff in India.

According to the WHO, around 6,000 people die due to poverty and starvation in India every day, out of which 3,000 are children. These poverty driven factors cause around 10 million deaths per annum in India. The shutdown of major parts of the economy has probably halved the GDP from the normal of 25 billion per month.  This will result in at least doubling of the poverty related deaths from 6000 to 12000 per day - which significantly dwarfs the impact of Covid related deaths which mainly has mortality in the ageing population segment.  Hence, we will see this year that the poverty induced death rate will probably move from 10 million to 20 million - if the economy remains shut.  

It is also difficult to practise infection control in a country with such an intense population density. Data is now emerging that Covid is not transmitted from surfaces but mainly through the air. The more the number of people tested, the more will be the number of positive cases. However, it does not mean that all those who are infected will die. Majority of the population below the age of 60 will be able to fight the infection. It is the older people and those with diabetes, cardiovascular and other significant risk factors who have a high probability of dying from Covid. 

India predominantly has a young population. The high population density will mean that there will be faster transmission of infection and a lower proportion of the population will need to be infected for herd immunity to develop and there is a formula that defines the relation with R0 replication rate and herd immunity.     

Poverty and malnourishment will result in further reduction in immunity even in the healthy young population and will impair their ability to fight Covid. Hence a balanced and sensible approach is needed in India to prevent economic damage. It is equally important to check an increase in other causes of deaths - including suicides. For every 1% increase in unemployment, data suggest that there is a 1.6% increase in suicides.  

India has a dense and varied population, making it impossible to contain community infection transfers. Even well-equipped hospitals are struggling to stop the spread of the infection despite sanitation and other measures. And going forward, it is essential to have a balanced approach and adapt to Covid in the new normal. India requires an overall robust, agile, digital and an available healthcare infrastructure and management. Healthcare technology is the future of the healthcare sector in India.