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The Economic Survey is an annual report issued by the Ministry of Finance, Government of India. First published in the 1950-51 fiscal year as part of the Union Budget, it was separated from the Budget in 1964 and now precedes it by one day. The Survey reviews the performance of the Indian economy over the past year, highlights major development programs, and outlines policy initiatives. It also projects the economy’s prospects for the short to medium term and includes detailed financial statistics of the government.

GDP growth forecast

The Economic Survey forecasts a GDP growth rate of 6.5% to 7% for FY 2025, which some observers consider conservative. This caution arises from the fact that the interim budget projected at least a 7% GDP growth and that India achieved an 8.2% growth in the previous fiscal year. V. Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economist of the Government of India, explained that while a 7% growth is achievable, the current global economic climate and elevated financial market valuations warrant a more cautious projection. He stated, “Since January (interim Budget), where we were more confident about a 7%, the global economy has become even more polarized. Financial market valuations are now elevated. We still feel 7% is doable, but we want to be prudent in our projections. We would rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed. That is why we are projecting 6.5-7%.”

Employment generation

The Survey emphasizes the need for the private sector to take a greater role in employment generation. Despite high profits, private companies have not invested sufficiently in creating jobs. Additionally, the Survey notes that the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been reducing employment opportunities, although it does not specify the details or sectors where AI’s impact has been most significant. The Survey asserts that India needs to create 78.5 lakh jobs annually until 2030 to achieve developmental status.

Agriculture sector insights

The issue of low farmer incomes is a persistent problem. The Survey recom-mends promoting Farmer Producer Organisations, implementing e-National Agriculture Marketing, and allowing cooperatives to participate in agricultural marketing to improve price discovery. Drawing from China’s success in doubling farmers’ incomes between 1978 and 1984, the Survey suggests increasing farmer incomes through crop diversification and focusing on high-value crops such as fruits, vegetables, fisheries, dairy, and buffalo meat. It also highlights the detrimental impact of conflicting central and state government policies on soil fertility, groundwater levels, and en-vironmental pollution. The Centre offers MSP (Minimum Support Price) for 23 crops and provides `6000 in cash benefits but also writes off farmer debts.

Recommendations and challenges

The Survey advises greater openness to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and suggests reconsidering protectionist policies and geopolitical crises that could disrupt export routes and escalate costs. It also calls for improvements in statistical systems to provide accurate signals for policy-making and expresses concern about climate change impacts.

In summary, the Economic Survey 2024 highlights several critical areas needing attention, including GDP growth projections, employment generation, agricultural reforms, and the need for better statistical systems.