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A glut situation has emerged in the post-Diwali period, with foodgrain stocks reaching exceptionally high levels. On October 1, wheat stocks in government godowns stood at 320.3 lakh tonnes — the highest in four years — exceeding the minimum buffer requirement by more than 1.5 times.

Rice stocks, too, have reached an unprecedented level. Government agencies are holding quantities about 4.4 times higher than what is required to meet the needs of the Public Distribution System (PDS) and the strategic reserve for emergencies.

The glut is expected to intensify as the harvesting and marketing of the new crop, which began in October, gather pace after Diwali. Farmers have planted a record 44.2 million hectares under rice this kharif season.

In the case of maize, the sown area has risen from 8.4 million hectares to 9.5 million hectares. Yet, prices have fallen. In states like Karnataka and Haryana, maize is selling at ₹2,000–₹2,100 per quintal, down from ₹2,200–₹2,300 a year ago, and well below the government’s Minimum Support Price (MSP) of ₹2,400.

Soyabean presents another example of bearish price trends despite lower production. The crop has been sown on 12 million hectares, down from 13 million hectares last year, according to the Union Agriculture Ministry. Estimated output is at a five-year low, mainly due to excessive rain, waterlogging, and resultant crop damage, which have reduced grain size and yield.

Even so, soyabean prices in Maharashtra’s Latur market have fallen to ₹4,100 per quintal, compared to ₹4,300 last year. The decline is largely attributed to bumper harvests in Brazil, Argentina, and the United States, which have driven global prices down. The cost of soyabean meal delivered at Indian ports has fallen from an average of $490 per tonne in September 2023 to $398 in September 2024.

One tonne of soyabean typically yields about 175 kg of oil and 830 kg of meal. While soyabean oil is sold domestically, the meal is both exported and consumed within India, mainly as poultry and cattle feed. However, sluggish exports and competition from distillers’ dried grains with solubles (DDGS) — a protein-rich byproduct used as livestock

feed — have put further downward pressure on prices.

Throughout the second half of 2023 and most of 2024, the Union government had been battling to curb food inflation, which was eroding household purchasing power. That battle has now been largely won. But the beneficiaries have shifted — it is farmers, not consumers, who are now feeling the strain.

Across the board, crops such as soyabean, maize, bajra, arhar, and moong are trading below their MSPs, reflecting a broadly bearish market sentiment. The situation persists even as abundant monsoon rains have replenished groundwater aquifers and filled reservoirs, promising favorable conditions for the upcoming rabi season.

In the coming months, the government’s policy focus is likely to shift towards supporting farmers. This could include restoring import duties on cotton and yellow or white peas, and stepping up procurement of pulses and oilseeds under the Price Support Scheme to stabilize farm incomes..