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According to a report by Voice of America (VOA) on August 27, 2020, a U.S. defense official stated that the People’s Liberation Army of China had launched four medium-range ballistic missiles from mainland China into the South China Sea. In 2022, Vietnam demanded that Taiwan cease its military drills in the Spratly Islands, located in the South China Sea. 

El Niño is a significant phenomenon discussed in this article. It provides an understanding of what El Niño is, how it occurs due to changes in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru, its general effects, and its impact on India. M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, stated, “There is a 90% probability that El Niño is likely to occur in the July-August

period this year. However, El Niño is not the sole factor influencing global wind patterns.” He added that other factors such as the Atlantic Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Eurasian snow cover could also affect the monsoon. “We anticipate a normal monsoon as forecasted,” said Ravichandran. El Niño is a weather phenomenon characterized by above normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.This warming causes changes in atmospheric patterns, leading to a weakening of the monsoon cir-culation over the subcontinent. Consequently, monsoons tend to be weaker and less reliable during El Niño years. India has experienced four consecutive years of normal and above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season since 2019. According to the meteorological department, rainfall between 96% and 104% of the 50 year average of 87 cm is considered “normal.”

Earlier this month, amid concerns about the potential impact of evolving El Niño conditions on monsoon rains, the government advised states to be prepared for the “worst situation” and ensure sufficient availability of seeds for the kharif sowing season in case of reduced rainfall. In a positive development for the agricultural sector, the government recently  announced that “normal rainfall” is expected in many parts of the peninsular region, adjoining eastern and northeastern regions, as well as some parts of northwest India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts “normal to below-normal rainfall” in parts of northwest India, west, central, and northeast regions during the southwest monsoon, a day after the private weather forecaster Skymet made a similar prediction. Ravichandran stated, “India will witness normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (June to September). It is likely to be 96% (with an error margin of 5%) of the long-period average of approximately 87 cm.” M Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at IMD, mentioned a 67% probability of normal to above-normal rainfall.

IMD on El Niño conditions

The IMD stated that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during this monsoon season, with the impact potentially felt in the second half. The IMD clarified that not all El Niño years result in poor monsoon years, highlighting that 40% of El Niño years in the past (1951-2022) experienced normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall. Senior meteorologists suggested that positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season. IMD head Mohapatra also mentioned that the snow-covered area over the northern hemisphere and Eurasia was below normal from December 2022 to March 2023. A lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere is considered favorable for subsequent southwest monsoon rainfall over India.