08

The real reason behind Trump’s call to regain Afganistan’s airbase is not just its strategic closeness to China, but the $3 trillion worth of rare earth deposits of the country. Describing his predecessor Biden’s decision to withdraw US troops from Afganistan as a ‘disaster’, Trump threatened  Afganistan by saying ‘bad things are going to happen’ if it does not hand over the Bagram airfield, ‘one of the biggest air bases in the world’ built by the US   there.

Immediately, China and Russia reacted saying   they would oppose such a move. Surprisingly, even Pakistan and India came together, along with Kirgizstan and other central Asian countries in support of Afganistan. India went a step further, and reopened the embassy in Kabul, in an attempt to establish a friendly relationship with the “Taliban” government. There was sharp domestic criticism when India welcomed the Taliban foreign minister to New Delhi; but when Pakistan attacked Afganistan, apparently on border issues but in reality for its willingness to be close with India, it was proved that India had been on the right track in befriending Afganistan on the north-western border, where the China-Pakistan link is always a threat.

True, Trump provided this sudden opportunity for India to re-establish friendship with Afganistan, and India acted swiftly. Traditionally, Afganistan had been a friend of India since the times of

Abdul Ghaffar Khan, who played an important role in Mahatma Gandhi’s non-violence movement. Things changed when the Taliban government took over and relationships deteriorated after the Bamiyan Buddha explosions in 2001. Since India is on the way to explore newer markets, after being rebuffed by the US, central Asia is a key area of  its choice. India’s attempt to renew friendship with Afganistan is a masterstroke, again helped by erratic behaviours of the US and Pakistan. Such is the outcome of clever diplomacy.

Today’s modern technologies like electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, semiconductors, and defence systems require rare earth elements (REE). After China (which holds 44 million tonnes of REE), Afganistan’s deposits are the most promising due to their concentration and diversity, potentially positioning it as a key supplier amid surging  demand projected to triple by 2030. No wonder Trump, the businessman, is so keen to force himself back into Afganistan.

Afganistan’s geology – tectonic crossroads – yield diverse deposits, making it a strategic frontier for critical minerals in the modern day’s green energy transition. China holds 60% of the global critical mineral resources followed by Vietnam, Brazil, Russia and US. Afganistan’s REE resource is almost the same as America’s today, but it can grow much more if it can overcome its infrastructural, environmental and security deficiencies. 

India’s critical mineral deposits are also substantial – almost 7 million tonnes – which is 8% of the world’s total deposits (120 MT, according to US geological survey reports). But both India and Afganistan suffer from technological backwardness and of course strict environmental laws. But today’s digital technologies will inevitably lead both Afganistan and India to modernise methods of extraction of critical minerals (without creating environmental hazards) to be a part of the global REE market, which is about $20 billion in 2025 and is projected to be $ 60 billion by 2030. Every mobile phone, for example, needs REE help.

With Afganistan, India has gone into several MoUs while having recent talks with its foreign minister, the most prominent being on rare earth extraction. India has set up its National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM), 2025 to boost its exploration through 1200 projects under Geological Survey of India. At the moment India contributes less than 1% to world production. Even Afganistan’s contribution, in spite of its drawbacks, is higher than India’s. India, through NCMM hopes to be self-reliant; its four semiconductor units are coming up fast. India-Afganistan tie-up in REE provides hope for a comfortable back-up.