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After being rebuked by Donald Trump, first through a 50% tax on Indian goods exported to the American market and now the one lakh dollar clampdown on HI-B visa, Narendra Modi has been forced to look elsewhere in the world for support. His visits to Japan, China and meeting with Putin in the wings of the Shanghai conference are some indications in that direction. In the suggestion of a possible Russia, China and India coming together, some saw a softening of stand in Trump and we found the US President  wished ‘Narendra, his good friend’ a happy birthday on his 75th anniversary.

But diplomacy is not confined to pleasantries only. Sometimes we might discover some weird reason in Trump’s madness. Simply put, he wants to force India – and China – to listen to him. He wants India to open its agriculture market to

American goods, which India rightfully would not allow, to become dependent again on outsiders for food. Trump also would not like Modi to buy oil from Russia, which Modi would not listen to. India naturally has the right to choose its market to buy its goods. Peeved, Trump announced he would not join India in the QUAD meeting later this year, forgetting that America’s professed enemy is not India, but China

and QUAD has been formed, along with India, Japan and Australia, to tackle the ever growing powers of China in the Indo-Pacific ocean region.

All countries eye for oil reserves anywhere in the world, and the South China Sea is supposed to have huge undersea reserves of oil. Since it is named “china” sea, China claims the region as his. Since it is an extension of the Indian Ocean, India too stakes its claim. And since it links the Pacific, the world (read US, Japan, Australia) claim it’s theirs too. The Indian navy, along with the support of the US, periodically carries out naval exercises there. China keeps a close watch.

Trump tried to make friends with Putin. It did not work. He tried to make up with China too. That too failed. He is furious that a ‘softer’ target like India is also acting tough. Though India is giving friendly overtures to China – tourists will now be allowed visa to travel to Mansarovar & Tibet – India is quietly building up alternative trade routes in the Indian Ocean region. To counter the ‘string of pearl’ strategy of China to encircle India, India is developing its ‘diamond necklace’ strategy. The tie up with Iran to utilise the Chabahar port is a strategy to bypass the China-Pakistan trade route through Gwadar and enter into trade with the central Asian countries. India is helping Maldives and Seychelles for capacity building in order to have a foothold there which will help monitoring the ocean.

In the 1980s, China and India were at par in economic progress. But today, China is five times stronger than India both militarily and economically. They started the economic liberalisation ten years earlier than India and invested in the right places – like education & research, infrastructure & technology – to become a super power. China invests $247 billion on defence, against India’s defence budget of $72.6 billion, of which China spends 30% on navy, while India spends about 20%. In this hugely unequal playing field, India has to strategise harder and more effectively to survive.

It is not a comfortable feeling for India to have a ‘dragon’ breathing all around. And that is precisely what is happening. Bangladesh is sharing its Chittagong port with China. So is Sri Lanka at Hambantola port and Pakistan at Gwadar port. This is part of China’s global ambition to create the new silk route for trade through land and sea (One Belt, One Road Initiative). Pakistan has handed over a part of POK to China to build the road to Europe. The Instabilities in Myanmar and recently Nepal are not very comfortable for India.

It is necessary that India spreads its wings more towards the east to balance its setbacks with the US. But the challenge of China here is formidable. Its presence is everywhere both in land and sea.