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As the U.S. presidential elections draw closer, the economic performance of President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump, has come under scrutiny. Both leaders have faced unprecedented challenges that have significantly impacted their economic policies and outcomes.

In a world still recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic records of both administrations must be assessed in the context of these extraordinary circumstances and the complexity of their policy decisions.

Economic Growth

One of the key indicators of economic performance is growth, typically measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Under Donald Trump, the U.S. economy initially grew at a strong rate of 2.3%. However, the onset of the pandemic caused a dramatic economic collapse, erasing much of the progress made during the earlier part of his presidency.

The recovery continued under Joe Biden’s administration, with the U.S. posting one of the strongest recoveries among G7 nations. Under Biden, the average annual growth rate has been 2.2%, almost identical to the growth under Trump. These similar growth figures challenge the narrative that one president vastly outperformed the other in terms of overall economic expansion.

Inflation

Inflation has become a significant point of debate, especially during Biden’s tenure. Prices surged to 9.1% by mid-2022, largely driven by global factors such as supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine. Since then, inflation has moderated to around 3%, though it remains higher than when Trump left office.

Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, aimed at stimulating economic recovery, has been both praised and criticized. While it was essential for driving post-pandemic growth, it also contributed to inflationary pressures, raising questions about the balance between economic stimulus and price stability.

Employment

Employment has been a strong point for both administrations, albeit under very different conditions. During Trump’s first three years in office, 6.7 million jobs were added. However, these gains were overshadowed by the job losses caused by the pandemic.

In contrast, Biden’s presidency has witnessed the fastest job growth in U.S. history, with 16 million jobs added. While some of this growth can be attributed to the natural rebound following pandemic lockdowns, Biden’s policies, particularly those focused on economic recovery, have undoubtedly played a role in accelerating this growth.

Despite these impressive job gains, recent fluctuations in job growth and a slight rise in unemployment have tempered the initial optimism. Wage growth has also been a concern, with inflation eroding real wages, negating much of the wage increases seen under both Trump and Biden.

Wage Stagnation and Living Costs

Wage stagnation remains a critical concern for many Americans, particularly those in lower income brackets who are grappling with rising living costs. Real wages have been slow to keep pace with inflation, leaving many workers feeling the pressure of higher prices despite overall economic improvements.

A Complex Comparison

Determining whether the U.S. economy is better off now under Biden or was stronger under Trump ultimately depends on which metrics one values most. It also hinges on how much weight is given to the unprecedented circumstances, such as the pandemic and global disruptions, that shaped both presidencies. Each administration had its successes and challenges, and the economic legacies of both leaders will likely continue to be debated as the election nears. .