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It is surprising that China has condemned the terrorist attack in Kashmir in no uncertain terms and has expressed a desire to be with the world’s united effort to combat terrorism. If it is not mere rhetoric, China sides with India in taking steps to root out terrorism from its source, that is Pakistan.

In the last 50 years, there have been at least nine standoffs, including four full-scale wars between India and Pakistan, who are now both nuclear powers and the United Nations are already at work to defuse tensions which escalate into nuclear fallout. India’s anger is understandable after the killing of 26 tourists in Pahalgoan – a first time attack on civilians, specifically on ‘Hindu’ male tourists. The Indian Prime Minister cries revenge of ‘unimaginable magnitude’ and has announced nullification of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) – a lifeline of Pakistan, closed trade borders, stopped issuing of visas, reduced manpower in consulates. Pakistan has reacted equally strongly by announcing to unfollow the Simla Treaty which assures peace at the line of control (LoC) and by asking Indian diplomats to leave Pakistan. Apparently, it’s a preparation for another full scale war.

But another war – is it desirable? Already, Pakistan has announced that it has nothing to do with this terrorist attack and demanded evidence of its link with the attack, which India is yet to provide. After the arrest of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, however, the world is convinced that Pakistan, and not Afghanistan, is the home-ground of terrorism. Pakistan government, which is now battling with terrorist attacks at several fronts internally in its own districts, claims that Laskar-i-toiba which had earlier spearheaded many terrorist attacks in India is now a defunct organisation.

However, India is not convinced. Politically, Pakistan is rattled with India’s increasingly strengthening of bonds with Saudi Arabia, the latest efforts being Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the country which had to be cut short, after the Pahalgoan attack. The attack happened significantly when the US Vice President was touring India – a US-India relationship, which has improved dramatically after Osama’s discovery in Abbotabad. China too in recent times is unhappy when its new Silk Route to Europe – One Belt One Road (OBOR) – project was damaged while it passes through Pakistan by attacks of Baluchistan rebels.

But India has to answer several questions – internally. Was this attack another intelligence failure? India had failed to measure the pro-Pakistan buildup in Bangladesh that ousted Hasina. There have been reports of jubilation in Bangladesh after the Pahalgoan massacre. With the abrogation of Article 370 - which made Kashmir a state of India - followed by the elections, did the authorities presume that Kashmir was free from terrorist attacks? Reports say that there have been cases of infiltration and skirmishes in recent times in the borders. How could the place of occurrence be left totally unguarded, knowing full well that this was the tourist season and in recent years the number has been swelling? The Amarnath Yatra is round the corner and the place falls within the route. Was this over-confidence or sheer callousness? In one stroke, the process of recovery of the shattered economy of Kashmir- which is primarily based on tourism – has come to a halt.

In the aftermath, it’s now futile demanding Pulwama-like ‘surgical strikes’. All political parties, including the entire opposition, have given the government full authority to root out terrorism. The world leaders, including those from Russia, America, UK, the EU, the Middle East -and even China – are now inclined towards India. Pakistan economically is now standing on weaker grounds; just a couple of years ago, post-Covid, it was seeking help from India which India declined, though it had helped Sri Lanka to recover economically. In

spite of sabre-rattling, Pakistan’s military junta is not in a position to fight India’s naval and military strength. India blocking Indus water to Pakistan - which Pakistan considers equivalent to war – may not be logistically possible imme-diately. It will require building of dams which cannot be done overnight. Besides, IWT is a World Bank project and Pakistan will certainly approach the international court of law. China cannot be trusted; it can retaliate by stopping water from Brahmaputra in support of its friend Pakistan. Any false step on the part of India – like an attack on Pakistan - will destroy the confidence India has gained globally. Can the world persuade Pakistan to go for elections, replacing the military rule?