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More than 80% of India’s oil requirements come from the Middle East, majorly from Iran. After the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear plant sites, Iran has announced to block the Hormuz passage of the Persian Gulf which is

expected to severely affect international transportation of oil. This will shoot up the oil prices, and add up to inflation. Hormuz blockage continues, in spite of the call for ceasefire.

The international oil price is hovering around $100 a barrel and the expected disruption of oil transportation, observers fear, could shoot up the barrel price to $150 or even more. One estimate says that with each 10 dollar rise of oil price per barrel could mean a rise of ` 7 per litre of petrol. The Israel-Iran conflict intensifying – and now the US directly entering into the war zone – means bad times for Indian economy.

The Iran-Israel conflict in the Middle East has a long history. If the Palestinians have survived the repeated thrashing of Israel, it is certainly because of tacit support of Iran. Israel was curved out of Palestinian land and the Palestinians have never accepted that. Now Israel wants to grab more land from Palestine, and the US openly supports Israel on this. President Trump recently announced to take over Gaza and transform it into a tourist land!

Trump is always on the lookout for world’s resources: he told the Ukrainian leader Yelinsky that he would give support to Ukraine in its war with Russia, provided Ukraine allows the US lay its hands on Ukraine’s mineral resources. The Middle East is always a soft target for the US for its oil resources. The US has established several military bases in the Middle Eastern countries but has so far failed to have full control over its oil resources. It created the myth of ‘weapon of mass destruction’ (WMD) to demolish Iraq earlier. Now its Iran’s turn almost on the similar lines – this time the excuse is the N-bomb which Iran has supposedly prepared to destroy Israel.

Israel is the front-man through which the US wants to dominate the Middle East – and also find an entry through the Iranian corridor, into the central Asian countries, where the US has hardly any existence. It’s a power game at the expense of the common man.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is said to have spoken to Iran after the US attack but the subject of the discussion is unavailable. It is presumed that India’s interests will be preserved because India is trying to do a difficult job of balancing relationships with both the camps - with Israel as well as Iran. India’s dependence on Iran for oil is well known, even though in one of the earlier Middle East crisis India sought to find an alternative route and procure oil from Russia. Israel is now a defence partner with India and in the recent conflict with Pakistan; Israel supplied the much needed drones. Though historically, India is a close ally with Russia, India is trying hard to improve its relationship with the US. India is moving out of its one-sided defence deal with Russia and trying to buy defence equipment from the US as well for which Russia is not at all happy.

Trust in India’s global politics is now being questioned, even though the external minister S. Jaishankar’s active role in international relations has generally been praised so far. In the two wars now being fought – Palestine–Israel and Ukraine-Russia – India has not been very clear in its support. But silence in the new de-velopments in the Iran Israel conflict may cost India quite dearly. India needs to take a position. It is not just oil – the remittances from the Indians living in the Middle East which run into $ 100 billion gives a lot of stability to India’s praiseworthy foreign exchange reserves. This is feared to go for a toss if the Iran Israel war deteriorates. Already India is trying to bring back about 4000 expatriates from Iran.

India is building an alternative route avoiding Pakistan and China’s new silk route through Iran’s Chabahar port to continue its trade with central Asian countries. These efforts are also in danger of being hampered in the deteriorating Iran-Israel war. It’s important that India takes a stand this time and speak out its position clearly. It is not easy.