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India Bangladesh relations, which was deteriorating with the ousting of Shiekh Hasina last year, took a nosedive early this week when a youth leader Hadi, who was part of the movement that led to Hasina fleeing for India, was murdered. The finger of suspicion was pointed at Indian intelligence people (RAW) in Bangladesh and its associates. There were arson and lynching and murder of Hindus and the Indian government sent stern warnings to the Bangladesh authorities to enforce control.

Reacting to the renewed chaos in Bangladesh, demonstrations also appeared in Indian cities, and Bangladesh, as a counter move, called the Indian embassy in Dhaka to take steps so that the Bangladesh missions in India are not harmed. It is imperative that stability returns to Bangladesh not just for its own good but for entire south Asia, where super powers like China and the US are becoming strong participants. Hasina openly blamed the US for her ouster through their alleged ‘agent’ Mohammed Yunus, who is now leading the interim government. For India, the continuous disturbance in Bangladesh not only affects its 12-billion-dollar yearly trade with its neighbour but also destabilises its internal peace. India is already in the cusp of a Hindu-Muslim trade-off and happenings in Bangladesh only adds fuel to fire.

Most people have forgotten India’s contribution to the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. Pakistan may have receded from Bangladesh but can never overcome its humiliation and its followers have never left the country. Shiekh Mujib’s daughter Hasina have been ruling ever since her father’s murder with the tacit help of India. The economic backwardness of the country was tackled by Hasina primarily through an improved textile trade, but global slowing down put the country again into uncertainties. The growing inflation affected the youth with joblessness and somehow Hasina’s dependence on India became a suspect. It was fueled by the Pakistani followers, who were commonly known as ‘Rajakars’. Pakistan would like to come back to power in Bangladesh - erstwhile ‘east Pakistan’- with support from China. The first step was to overthrow Hasina whom they described as ‘autocratic’. They cashed in on the youth resentment. Bangladesh court pronounced a death sentence on Hasina for the killings of the youth during the movement last year and asked India, where she is now residing, to hand her over which obviously India refused. That increased the anger against India.

The interim government led by Yunus, instigated by Pakistan often talk of a ‘greater’ Bangladesh including the ‘seven sisters’ of the north east. Such statements are uttered by the Field Marshal Munir too. The ‘chicken neck’ in West Bengal also become a reference point for accession. India quickly strengthened its armed force in this area near Siliguri. So, the growing trouble in Bangladesh can have serious repercussions on India – politically, economically and in terms of international relations.

The recent flare up in Bangladesh is also interpreted by 

observers as an attempt to stall the elections that has been announced in Bangladesh in early 2026. Hasina’s Awami league has been banned from participating the elections which indicates that the results will be one-sided. Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)’s chief Begum Khaleda Zia is seriously ill and her son Tarique Rahman has arrived from abroad this week. BNP and Jaimati are Islamic parties and pro-Pakistani. They coming to power means strengthening of an anti-Indian stand and increasing influence of Pakistan.

Lots can happen before the Bangladesh elections – if at all it takes place. An inquiry has been ordered into Hadi’s murder. If Bangladesh authorities try to establish an Indian ‘hand’ in it, relationship will deteriorate further.